$72 Oil, 80% Lithium Crash: Global Commodity Divergence
Oil at $72-78, Lithium Down 80%, Flour Cartel Fined $5.2 Billion: The Global Commodity Reset and What It Means for Korea My view on oil: Commodity markets in May 2026 are being pulled in four directions at once. Middle East supply risks keep a floor under crude oil. The Fed's refusal to cut rates keeps a ceiling on everything. China's on-again, off-again stimulus attempts keep base metals from collapsing entirely. And the EV transition's deceleration — yes, it's decelerating — has turned lithium and cobalt from "critical minerals of the future" into oversupplied afterthoughts trading at a fraction of their peak. If you're trying to build a coherent commodity thesis right now, I feel your pain. I've been tracking these markets daily, and the cross-currents are as confusing as anything I've seen since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine shock in 2022.