dailypro2020

Valuation Warning Signals 232.5% Buffett Indicator All-time high 38x CAPE (Shiller P/E) 2nd only to dot-com 44x 22x S&P 500 Forward P/E +22% above 10yr avg $1.27T M7 Cap Lost To $22.32T total But I think focusing on a single metric in isolation is a mistake. The M7 stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia — lost $1.27 trillion in combined market cap during the recent volatility, falling to $22.32 trillion. That's a 5.4% decline in mega-cap value in a single week. Goldman Sachs' Ben Snyder noted that "stocks trading at enterprise value exceeding 10x sales are seeing the most active trading since the dot-com bubble." SpaceX's IPO drew $250 billion in orders — 3.3x the $75 billion target, implying a market that's de...

Triple Threat Metrics 1,524.20 USD/KRW 17 sessions >1,500 $95+ WTI Crude +2% on Iran attack 4.2% CPI YoY Above BOK 2% target 21 bases Iran strikes Bahrain/Jordan/Kuwait The problem isn't any single one of these metrics. It's the feedback loop that connects all three. Oil pushes import costs higher, which pushes CPI up. Higher CPI forces the BOK to consider rate hikes, which strengthens the dollar and weakens the won further. A weaker won then makes oil imports even more expensive. This is the stagflation trilemma that Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier warned about: "If oil stays above $95 for several months, stagflation becomes a reality." Alessia Berardi at Amundi reinforced the point: "Rate repricing and oil together is a shortcut to stagfla...

KOSPI Volatility at a Glance 91.23 VKOSPI All-time high >2008 peak 80 8.29% Circuit Breaker First since March 2008 5x Sidecars In one month -42% Trading Volume 1.1B → 549M shares 2.77T won Foreign Sell (23d) 23 consecutive sessions Here's what happened in the numbers that actually matter. Daily trading volume collapsed from 1.1 billion shares to 549 million shares — a 42% drop that signals institutional withdrawal, not just retail panic. Trading value halved from 80 trillion won ($61.5 billion at 1,300 won per dollar) to 39.9 trillion won ($26.2 billion). When the daily value drops below 50 trillion won, the market becomes structurally illiquid — moves are amplified in both directions because there aren't...

AI Cycle at Year 4: Is This a Dot-Com Bubble or an Industrial Revolution? Korea's Stake in the Debate The bull and bear cases for AI have never been more sharply polarized. On one side, Meritz Securities in Seoul projects the KOSPI at 11,500 based on a structural transformation thesis that draws explicit parallels to the industrial revolution. On the other, Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warns that the narrow market breadth — just 20 of the S&P 500's 500 constituents hit new highs on May 29 — mirrors the dot-com peak of March 2000 with alarming precision. I think both sides present intellectually honest arguments backed by real data, and the truth probably lies somewhere in between. But the evidence tilts toward the structural shift camp — with important caveats that every investor in Korean equities needs to understand before making allocation decisions. " alt="AI Cycle Year 4 Bull Bear Debate Infographic: S&P500 8-...