US 30-Year at 5.182%, Japan at High: Bond Spike
I think something broke in global bond markets on May 18, and I've been watching this unfold in real time. Not a crash. Not a crisis in the traditional sense. But a simultaneous repricing across three of the world's largest sovereign debt markets at magnitudes not seen in decades. The US 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.182%, the highest since June 2007 — 19 years ago. The 10-year Treasury traded near 4.63%, a one-year high. Japan's 10-year government bond hit an intraday 2.8%, a level not seen since 1996 — a span of 30 years that encompasses the entire post-bubble deflationary era. Japan's 30-year JGB recorded its highest yield since 1999. South Korea's 10-year KTB climbed to 4.239%, the highest since November 2023, while the 3-year bond reached 3.757%. The three economies represent roughly $50 trillion in combined sovereign debt outstanding. All three were selling off at the same time, on the same day, for interconnected reasons that trace back to a single geo...